Mid term elections approaching, the prospect of economic recovery are increasingly remote, the unemployment rate remains high, low enthusiasm for business investment, the banks reluctance to lend as before, even on the second sink to the bottom of the concerns have begun to spread; has promised to make good Obama appears to have do anything but to once again wielding a magic weapon for fiscal stimulus, but apparently not the original 787 billion plan emboldened, recently raised 50 billion infrastructure investment plan, not only is small, even within the Democratic Party are not enthusiastic high, and the corporate tax credit scheme, it is a continuation of the previous tax cuts.
Feel that the situation may be bad, perhaps in line with Obama rally, Bernanke has also frequently voice, stating, where necessary, will introduce more incentives; In fact, the Fed had already quit the just started the process of shrink back, this action shows that they have confirmed the prospect of economic downturn; question is whether to continue to inject liquidity to drive the recovery process?
787 billion fiscal stimulus plan is called a near perfect school failure patients, despite its size so large that even the most enthusiastic supporters are too embarrassed to say enough, the result is called and hydroplaning, its supporters to pledge commitment The new jobs are they not appear that the building was carefully calculated unemployment rate really gives the curve is no sign of fading into memory, which is more than a year, has not any significant external events can be predicted to completely fail and they justify .
In hindsight, the effect of fiscal stimulus is simply the original one or two quarters in the back garden of the money spent in advance; this point in the auto market appears most clearly, subsidies brought a quarter of hot, very soon to be offset by the downturn in the next quarter, in the same subsidies for the implementation of a car in China, amazingly similar; the only consequence of this is to stimulate a lot of money just points to the recent plan to buy a car, and this China is particularly absurd, where cars can not afford the poor.
The recovery of hope on the Federal Reserve who, I am afraid the same will come to nothing; in the beginning of the panic Jieduan crisis, the Fed outstanding performance, drawing on the Great Depression of Jiao Xun, Dong Yong of all possible means, Jishi injected liquidity to the market, avoiding disaster of deflation; but the Fed is not a magician, could not expect to create growth and employment, to avoid currency turmoil is the best thing it can do, so at this stage, it is not the focus of the action, concerned about the economic trend of people , do not have to stare at all day Bernanke has.
Vision should be to market and enterprise, innovation and entrepreneurial activity is the only recovery and growth will eventually depend on; entrepreneurial innovation and entrepreneurial activity increasing? Old enterprise is interested in upgrading technology and business process transformation? The early start up companies access to financing is increased? activities are dilated active? All of these activities and the adequacy of bank support? When they do so whether the institutional and policy environment have concerns? Determine the prospects for recovery in terms of these issues is important, as fiscal stimulus, has been proven to not have any contribution to recovery, it affects only those people need to care about their jobs.
However, it is on these issues, the situation is not optimistic; once vibrant new energy seems to be placed too high expectations, the electric car was more like a castle in the air, biological and pharmaceutical industry, no lack of wind thunder, but the short term points seem to hope not rain came down, the only still maintain forward momentum, as if only the information technology and the Internet, but to expect the Department to promote the recovery of the engine, I am afraid is unreliable.
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